60 Second Probability

Many people think machines at Casinos are rigged. They are not, only the payouts are rigged in their favor. Here’s an example of how they keep the lights on:

Let’s say you go to Vegas With $100 in your pocket and you want to play roulette.

You want to put that money on your “lucky” number 00, assuming that double zero is your “lucky” number, which it might not be.

What are your odds of winning?

A roulette wheel in the United States of America contains 37 real numbers (0-36) and one imaginary number(00) Okay this is not the actual definition of an imaginary number, but Double zero exists nowhere else outside of a casino.

If you could somehow make this $100 bet on 13 over a large number of times(let’s say one million times) you can expect to win the bet 1 time for every 37 times you lose.

You only have $100 though so this is all you can lose. If the ball falls on 00 the casino has to pay you. How much do you win?
$3500. WOO HOO! AWESOME! Now you contemplate being a professional roulette player.

There is just one problem. You scratch your head and say WTF? The odds were 37-to-1. They only paid me $3500 or 35-to-1. You realize that over the long run you expect to lose $3700 for every $3500 you win making that $100 bet.

In other words, win or lose, on average the hundred dollar bet costs you $5.41. This means you can’t become a professional roulette player until casinos start paying at least 38-to-1 which is unlikely since they are in business to make money.

After all, these payouts are how they keep the lights on, pay the mortgage, pay all the casino workers and make a profit.